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Sunday, August 08, 2010
Friday, October 30, 2009
Thoughts For a Bye Week
I've been thinking about the non-AQ BCS bowl race. Obviously BYU is out of the discussion, but that doesn't mean a BYU fan shouldn't be cognizant of what is going on. As for me, I'd be happy at this point to see TCU represent the MWC. I'm convinced that they're a pretty good team, just as long as they don't choke against Utah this year. If TCU loses to Utah and Boise St. drops a game... ugh, I don't want to consider those possibilities.
I'm going to go a little into the nitty-gritty of the BCS numbers here, so if you don't want to bother with them, go ahead and skip to the summary at the end and I won't judge you. And if you want some entertainment, please enjoy an unrelated 80s classic:
At this point the two undefeated non-AQ schools are the two likely candidates for a BCS bowl. Obviously, if one of them loses and the other remains perfect, the unblemished record will get the BCS nod. But if they both finish the season unscathed, who will go to a BCS bowl? It depends. (Technically, they could both go, but the second would have to be selected over other at-large teams, such as a second SEC, Big 12, or Pac 10 team. It's a distant possibility, but throw that chance out the window if Notre Dame lives up to Lou Holtz's expectations and ends up 10-2.)
I think a lot of people don't understand the BCS, and few take the time to really analyze the standings. (Even Pete Carroll admitted he doesn't get them.) Let me point some things out about the current standings. The story that came out with standings this week was that TCU jumped BSU, but that story is very incomplete. To start, you'll notice that the BCS averages for the fifth through eighth teams range from 0.7735 to 0.7944. To give some context for this, that's the equivalent of being separated by half of a ranking spot, i.e., they are essentially tied for about fifth and a half, closer to fifth. Fourth-ranked Iowa at 0.8249 is only about a half-rank above the group. In other words, Iowa, USC, TCU, Boise St., and Cincinnati are so close to each other that they will likely shift around, even if they all continue winning. The margins are just so small.
Two thirds of the BCS average is derived from polls; one third comes from computers. Currently, TCU is below Boise St. in both of the important polls, which means there is more for TCU to gain there. Unlike the computers, margin of victory does factor into the style points for the polls. TCU's win last weekend closed about half of the gap, and if they can dominate their opponents and put away games early, especially when they play Utah in a couple of weeks, they can possibly jump Boise St. in the human polls, which will essentially guarantee that they will end up on top of the BCS standings. If teams ranked around them lose (Cincinnati, USC, Iowa) this could help close the gap in polls as well. In my opinion, TCU will pull the old switcheroo on Boise St. in the polls if both teams win out.
The maligned BCS computers account for half as much of the BCS average as the human polls. The only direct effect a team has on its computer ranking is in the win/loss column. This week, TCU is fourth ranked in the computers, and Boise State is eighth, so there is more room for Boise to move up. But they don't control their own destiny, to use the cliche. TCU has UNLV, @SDSU, Utah, @Wyoming, and New Mexico left to play, while Boise St. has a slightly less impressive slate of WAC dead meat to play: SJSU, @La Tech, Idaho, @Utah State (go State!), Nevada, and New Mexico State. Most of those opponents won't boost any computer rankings, and it looks like sixes as far as remaining strength of schedule. One factor will be the teams around and between TCU and BSU in the rankings. Texas, USC, Oregon, Cincinnati, LSU, and about a half dozen other schools are right in there. The more important thing, however, is that the Broncos' strength of schedule over the entire year is almost entirely dependent on Oregon. If the Ducks don't beat USC tomorrow and keep winning (including wins at Stanford and at Arizona), Boise St. will be out of luck again this year, unless the Horned Frogs take a dive also.
In short, TCU has the inside track to a BCS bowl. In order for Boise State to regain lost ground, they need Oregon to finish 11-1 and probably several other of the right teams (Cincinnati, Texas, LSU) to lose. My guess is that TCU wins out and takes the bid.
I'm going to go a little into the nitty-gritty of the BCS numbers here, so if you don't want to bother with them, go ahead and skip to the summary at the end and I won't judge you. And if you want some entertainment, please enjoy an unrelated 80s classic:
At this point the two undefeated non-AQ schools are the two likely candidates for a BCS bowl. Obviously, if one of them loses and the other remains perfect, the unblemished record will get the BCS nod. But if they both finish the season unscathed, who will go to a BCS bowl? It depends. (Technically, they could both go, but the second would have to be selected over other at-large teams, such as a second SEC, Big 12, or Pac 10 team. It's a distant possibility, but throw that chance out the window if Notre Dame lives up to Lou Holtz's expectations and ends up 10-2.)
I think a lot of people don't understand the BCS, and few take the time to really analyze the standings. (Even Pete Carroll admitted he doesn't get them.) Let me point some things out about the current standings. The story that came out with standings this week was that TCU jumped BSU, but that story is very incomplete. To start, you'll notice that the BCS averages for the fifth through eighth teams range from 0.7735 to 0.7944. To give some context for this, that's the equivalent of being separated by half of a ranking spot, i.e., they are essentially tied for about fifth and a half, closer to fifth. Fourth-ranked Iowa at 0.8249 is only about a half-rank above the group. In other words, Iowa, USC, TCU, Boise St., and Cincinnati are so close to each other that they will likely shift around, even if they all continue winning. The margins are just so small.
Two thirds of the BCS average is derived from polls; one third comes from computers. Currently, TCU is below Boise St. in both of the important polls, which means there is more for TCU to gain there. Unlike the computers, margin of victory does factor into the style points for the polls. TCU's win last weekend closed about half of the gap, and if they can dominate their opponents and put away games early, especially when they play Utah in a couple of weeks, they can possibly jump Boise St. in the human polls, which will essentially guarantee that they will end up on top of the BCS standings. If teams ranked around them lose (Cincinnati, USC, Iowa) this could help close the gap in polls as well. In my opinion, TCU will pull the old switcheroo on Boise St. in the polls if both teams win out.
The maligned BCS computers account for half as much of the BCS average as the human polls. The only direct effect a team has on its computer ranking is in the win/loss column. This week, TCU is fourth ranked in the computers, and Boise State is eighth, so there is more room for Boise to move up. But they don't control their own destiny, to use the cliche. TCU has UNLV, @SDSU, Utah, @Wyoming, and New Mexico left to play, while Boise St. has a slightly less impressive slate of WAC dead meat to play: SJSU, @La Tech, Idaho, @Utah State (go State!), Nevada, and New Mexico State. Most of those opponents won't boost any computer rankings, and it looks like sixes as far as remaining strength of schedule. One factor will be the teams around and between TCU and BSU in the rankings. Texas, USC, Oregon, Cincinnati, LSU, and about a half dozen other schools are right in there. The more important thing, however, is that the Broncos' strength of schedule over the entire year is almost entirely dependent on Oregon. If the Ducks don't beat USC tomorrow and keep winning (including wins at Stanford and at Arizona), Boise St. will be out of luck again this year, unless the Horned Frogs take a dive also.
In short, TCU has the inside track to a BCS bowl. In order for Boise State to regain lost ground, they need Oregon to finish 11-1 and probably several other of the right teams (Cincinnati, Texas, LSU) to lose. My guess is that TCU wins out and takes the bid.
Monday, October 26, 2009
Why Bother?
This song came into my head walking away from LES on Saturday:
Why bother? it's gonna hurt me
It's gonna kill when you desert me
This happened to me twice before
It won't happen to me anymore
I don't want to analyze the game itself. I just don't know why I work myself up to thinking we can win a big game.
Why bother? it's gonna hurt me
It's gonna kill when you desert me
This happened to me twice before
It won't happen to me anymore
I don't want to analyze the game itself. I just don't know why I work myself up to thinking we can win a big game.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Geocentrism and the BCS
On the day of the first BCS standings of the season, allow me to share a quick history lesson. Just humor me for a minute.
Heraclides Ponticus, the fourth century BC Greek, is generally credited as the first person to suggest that the Earth rotates around the Sun and not the other way around. About eighteen centuries later, give or take, the more well-known Copernicus, Kepler, and Galileo led the way and the idea that the Earth revolves around the Sun was gradually accepted throughout the world. Well actually, the Catholic Church, among others, denounced the idea and called it heresy. It wasn't until 1992 that the Pope admitted that the Church had made a mistake. If you're counting, that's something like 2300 years for the correct idea to be completely and officially accepted. And today, it would be laughable for someone to be so simple-minded to think the Sun revolves around the Earth, but there are some stragglers.
Why did it take so long to change people's minds? To be honest, the geocentric theory makes a lot of sense if all you watch is the Sun and the stars rotating across the sky. It was perfectly natural for people to come up with the idea. And when people did begin to realize that the Earth may not be at the center of the Universe, the average person probably didn't care, because it really has no effect on their daily lives. The tradition was already ingrained in the collective mind of society, and there was no incentive to change it. And maybe more importantly, a change would be a challenge to the ruling elite.
Okay, so when I was writing about geocentrism, I was really thinking about the BCS system. If you haven't already, feel free to think about the comparison for a minute.
Among the Cougar Crazies, I may be the one who is least critical of the BCS. I didn't write this post to argue for or against the BCS. Those arguments have been made many times in many different circles.
I have never wanted to give "lesser" undefeated teams like Boise St. and Utah (and Hawai'i for the record) a chance to play for a national championship. Nothing in particular sparked my recent train of thought, but over the last few years, watching upsets of non-BCS teams and weaker BCS teams over supposedly dominant BCS teams, it makes me believe the cliche that on any given Saturday, anyone can win. The problem is that 119 teams each play 12 games, during which teams and players can have good or bad days and they are developing (or regressing) throughout the season. There just isn't enough data to say which team is the best at the end of the year, and who deserves a chance to play for the national championship. There's no perfect system, because each year there is a different situation at the top. But we can do better, and I think things need to change.
The process of change in this case is certainly not a quick one. The BCS itself was actually an improvement over the patchwork bowl system that was in place before, although it implemented bias directly into the system. Things are in motion, a steadily growing movement against the BCS exists and is flourishing, and it seems inevitable sooner or later the people in charge of the BCS will be forced to change things.
Here's one final, mildly related thought for you all, from one of the great sports movies of all time (skip to 2:00 if you want).
Heraclides Ponticus, the fourth century BC Greek, is generally credited as the first person to suggest that the Earth rotates around the Sun and not the other way around. About eighteen centuries later, give or take, the more well-known Copernicus, Kepler, and Galileo led the way and the idea that the Earth revolves around the Sun was gradually accepted throughout the world. Well actually, the Catholic Church, among others, denounced the idea and called it heresy. It wasn't until 1992 that the Pope admitted that the Church had made a mistake. If you're counting, that's something like 2300 years for the correct idea to be completely and officially accepted. And today, it would be laughable for someone to be so simple-minded to think the Sun revolves around the Earth, but there are some stragglers.
Why did it take so long to change people's minds? To be honest, the geocentric theory makes a lot of sense if all you watch is the Sun and the stars rotating across the sky. It was perfectly natural for people to come up with the idea. And when people did begin to realize that the Earth may not be at the center of the Universe, the average person probably didn't care, because it really has no effect on their daily lives. The tradition was already ingrained in the collective mind of society, and there was no incentive to change it. And maybe more importantly, a change would be a challenge to the ruling elite.
Okay, so when I was writing about geocentrism, I was really thinking about the BCS system. If you haven't already, feel free to think about the comparison for a minute.
Among the Cougar Crazies, I may be the one who is least critical of the BCS. I didn't write this post to argue for or against the BCS. Those arguments have been made many times in many different circles.
I have never wanted to give "lesser" undefeated teams like Boise St. and Utah (and Hawai'i for the record) a chance to play for a national championship. Nothing in particular sparked my recent train of thought, but over the last few years, watching upsets of non-BCS teams and weaker BCS teams over supposedly dominant BCS teams, it makes me believe the cliche that on any given Saturday, anyone can win. The problem is that 119 teams each play 12 games, during which teams and players can have good or bad days and they are developing (or regressing) throughout the season. There just isn't enough data to say which team is the best at the end of the year, and who deserves a chance to play for the national championship. There's no perfect system, because each year there is a different situation at the top. But we can do better, and I think things need to change.
The process of change in this case is certainly not a quick one. The BCS itself was actually an improvement over the patchwork bowl system that was in place before, although it implemented bias directly into the system. Things are in motion, a steadily growing movement against the BCS exists and is flourishing, and it seems inevitable sooner or later the people in charge of the BCS will be forced to change things.
Here's one final, mildly related thought for you all, from one of the great sports movies of all time (skip to 2:00 if you want).
Monday, October 05, 2009
Dr. Bowden and Mr. Hyde
I've never read the book, but I think the comparison is appropriate. The Seminoles have displayed two markedly different personalities on the football field during the first five games of the season.
They started off the season with a close loss to Miami, in which they looked good, although not great, and should have won except for a couple of dropped passes as time drained out. (In light of what Miami has done since then, the performance looks even better.) Then FSU played awfully against FCS Jacksonville State, making a last-minute comeback. I stress that the 'Noles were awful, by the way, not unlucky with turnovers
or anything like that. I shouldn't need to mention their game the week after that, but they looked like a completely different team, among the strongest single game by any team this season, at least that I've seen. Of course, coming off a big win over a top ten opponent, Florida State predictably dropped the next two games to then-unranked South Florida and Boston College. (South Florida is tested really only by FSU but is 5-0, while Boston College is 4-1 with a more suspect schedule.) This leaves Florida State 2-3 with only one win against an FBS opponent, our very own Cougars.
To be fair, Florida State isn't the only team that has me bewildered from week to week. Oregon (among other Pac-10 teams), Oklahoma State, Miami, and Houston (maybe even Nevada, for those MWC hardcore) have yielded some shocking game results, more erratic than any season I remember. Even more than the 2007 season, where top teams were repeatedly knocked off, teams this year have come out and unexpectedly either obliterated their opponents or completely flopped. I wonder what to make of this epidemic and its effects on the polls, and whether the trend will persist through the rest of the season or further.
The whole situation is very frustrating for Seminole fans, I'm sure, but it's also especially frustrating to Cougar fans who were hoping to establish some national clout with their nonconference games. Is there any reason Mr. Hyde showed up to coach the game at LES and not Dr. Bowden? (Or was it Dr. Bowden that showed up and Mr. Hyde in the other games? That's for FSU to decide, I guess.) It just seems like Florida State is doing everything it can to hurt our season, short of losing to an FCS team.
On the other hand, Bronco makes a good point here, that is, realistically the best most people expected before the season started was a 4-1 record at this point. I've mostly come to terms with that fact.
Hey, at least we still have that win over 2-2 Oklahoma.
They started off the season with a close loss to Miami, in which they looked good, although not great, and should have won except for a couple of dropped passes as time drained out. (In light of what Miami has done since then, the performance looks even better.) Then FSU played awfully against FCS Jacksonville State, making a last-minute comeback. I stress that the 'Noles were awful, by the way, not unlucky with turnovers
or anything like that. I shouldn't need to mention their game the week after that, but they looked like a completely different team, among the strongest single game by any team this season, at least that I've seen. Of course, coming off a big win over a top ten opponent, Florida State predictably dropped the next two games to then-unranked South Florida and Boston College. (South Florida is tested really only by FSU but is 5-0, while Boston College is 4-1 with a more suspect schedule.) This leaves Florida State 2-3 with only one win against an FBS opponent, our very own Cougars.
To be fair, Florida State isn't the only team that has me bewildered from week to week. Oregon (among other Pac-10 teams), Oklahoma State, Miami, and Houston (maybe even Nevada, for those MWC hardcore) have yielded some shocking game results, more erratic than any season I remember. Even more than the 2007 season, where top teams were repeatedly knocked off, teams this year have come out and unexpectedly either obliterated their opponents or completely flopped. I wonder what to make of this epidemic and its effects on the polls, and whether the trend will persist through the rest of the season or further.
The whole situation is very frustrating for Seminole fans, I'm sure, but it's also especially frustrating to Cougar fans who were hoping to establish some national clout with their nonconference games. Is there any reason Mr. Hyde showed up to coach the game at LES and not Dr. Bowden? (Or was it Dr. Bowden that showed up and Mr. Hyde in the other games? That's for FSU to decide, I guess.) It just seems like Florida State is doing everything it can to hurt our season, short of losing to an FCS team.
On the other hand, Bronco makes a good point here, that is, realistically the best most people expected before the season started was a 4-1 record at this point. I've mostly come to terms with that fact.
Hey, at least we still have that win over 2-2 Oklahoma.
Friday, September 25, 2009
Beat the Bookie: Week 4
I'm filling in for the Triz with this week's Beat the Bookie. Unfortunately, that means that results from last week have not been updated, but I can assure you that it's not because of Triz's laziness. Anyway, here you go.
This Week's Games:
Colorado State at BYU
Favorite: BYU
Spread: 17.5
Louisville at Utah
Favorite: Utah
Spread: 14.5
TCU at Clemson
Favorite: Clemson
Spread: 2.5
Cal at Oregon
Favorite: Cal
Spread: 5.5
Miami at Virginia Tech
Favorite: Miami
Spread: 3.5
Picks are due by SATURDAY at 1:30 p.m. MST. Email them to: triz@cougarcrazies.com. If you are new to the blog, you can read about how Beat the Bookie works here.
This Week's Games:
Colorado State at BYU
Favorite: BYU
Spread: 17.5
Louisville at Utah
Favorite: Utah
Spread: 14.5
TCU at Clemson
Favorite: Clemson
Spread: 2.5
Cal at Oregon
Favorite: Cal
Spread: 5.5
Miami at Virginia Tech
Favorite: Miami
Spread: 3.5
Picks are due by SATURDAY at 1:30 p.m. MST. Email them to: triz@cougarcrazies.com. If you are new to the blog, you can read about how Beat the Bookie works here.
Friday, September 18, 2009
Friday Night Lights: BYU Recruits To Play in Nationally Televised Game
Want a warm-up for the Florida State game tomorrow? How about flipping over to ESPN-U (channel 400 on Comcast in Utah) at 8 pm MST tonight for a nice little treat. If you do, you'll get to watch Skyline High School of Washington take on Oaks Christian of California.
For those unaware, future BYU QB, and #1 rated HS QB, Jake Heaps (right) plays for Skyline High School and Nick Montana (son of Joe Montana) plays for Oaks Christian. Heaps is considered the better QB, but more important than Montana though are two other BYU commits playing for Oaks Christian; linebacker Zac Sout and defensive end Alani Fua.
I'm excited to watch 3 high profile recruits square off against each other. I just hope that if Stout or Fua break through the line they'll pretend like it's practice and go with the "touch the quarterback and he's down" rule. No sense in hurting your own teammate guys.
Because both teams are top 10 HS teams it should be a good game and good to see these BYU recruits play against other top national talent.
My prediction (based on nothing whatsoever): Skyline 31 - Oaks Christian 27
For those unaware, future BYU QB, and #1 rated HS QB, Jake Heaps (right) plays for Skyline High School and Nick Montana (son of Joe Montana) plays for Oaks Christian. Heaps is considered the better QB, but more important than Montana though are two other BYU commits playing for Oaks Christian; linebacker Zac Sout and defensive end Alani Fua.
I'm excited to watch 3 high profile recruits square off against each other. I just hope that if Stout or Fua break through the line they'll pretend like it's practice and go with the "touch the quarterback and he's down" rule. No sense in hurting your own teammate guys.
Because both teams are top 10 HS teams it should be a good game and good to see these BYU recruits play against other top national talent.
My prediction (based on nothing whatsoever): Skyline 31 - Oaks Christian 27
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